Have Pakistan’s generals overplayed their hand in Afghanistan?

Daily Times
by:Sonali Ranade



What can Pakistan possibly gain from a total control of Afghanistan that it cannot gain otherwise by peaceful means?

Back in October 2011, I attempted to summarise Pakistan’s options in Afghanistan in light of the evolving situation then. The article is available at: http://dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011%5C10%5C02%5Cstory_2-10-2011_pg3_5. The present attempt is to see how many of the assumptions I made then have come true and to reassess Pakistan’s options in relation to the new situation. The idea is not so much to stress what went wrong but to see how things can be set right in the interests of all stakeholders in Afghanistan. The focus of course will be on the play of interests of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

Begin by noting that the worst possible outcome of the Afghan conflict for Pakistan is at hand. Its key lies in the US determination to keep a few thousand Special Forces troops in Afghanistan for the next 10 years, complete with two or more dedicated airbases that will house drones and other fighters to protect them. In addition, the US and its allies will fund the Afghan national Army (ANA) for the next 10 years as it takes over security duties from US troops. The new US strategy is minimalist in deployment and works on the basis of denial of control of areas to the Taliban and their backers. While the US may not be able to prevent the Taliban from taking over some southern parts of Afghanistan, the US presence along with the ANA will ensure the north remains with those elements aligned with Kabul. It will be exceedingly difficult for Pakistan and its proxies to knock off completely both the ANA and the US forces to take full control over Afghanistan. In other words, should the parties fail to negotiate successfully, the arrangement ensures the continuation of a low intensity civil war in the country for the foreseeable future.

Iran, India, Russia and China have vital stakes in the area that Pakistan cannot overlook. None of them, not even China who is the closest to Pakistan in this group, is going to wait for Pakistan to prevail in Afghanistan. They will all move to secure their interests as best as they can, with Pakistan’s help if possible, without it if necessary. Pakistan has the capability to deny peace in Afghanistan but it can do so only at great expense to itself and at the risk of isolating itself from the world community. A prolongation of the conflict in Afghanistan has grave risks for Pakistan’s internal security and balance as well. Some of the state’s proxies are already out of control and others are exhibiting classic signs of developing political ambitions independently of their sponsors in the Pakistani ‘Deep State’. Pakistan’s GDP has been stagnating; its internal debt is too large in relation to both its GDP and the government’s revenue raising capacity. But for workers’ remittances from abroad, amounting to about $ 12 billion, Pakistan’s internal and external finances would be precarious. With a burgeoning population, deteriorating law and order, little investment, Pakistan cannot afford continuation of the conflict in Afghanistan indefinitely without risking an implosion at home. As it is, many investors are pulling out in the face of mounting political risks.

Be that as it may, why does Pakistan need to act as a spoiler in Afghanistan? What can Pakistan possibly gain from a total control of Afghanistan that it cannot gain otherwise by peaceful means? Where do Pakistan’s true interests lie in Afghanistan and how are they best secured?

First, let us get the nonsense about strategic depth out of the way. With a nuclear arsenal that is now larger than India’s, does Pakistan really fear an Indian armoured blitz that will cut Pakistan into two halves in a matter of days? With China sitting pretty in Kashmir and Afghanistan, can India really confront Pakistan with a two-front situation using Afghanistan? In other words, the old security arguments that called for complete domination of Afghanistan by Pakistan and its proxies are more or less irrelevant in the evolving situation. Absent these considerations, what else can Pakistan really achieve by a full domination in Afghanistan?

The overland oil routes to Iran from India and China, and access to Central Asia by India remain two valid considerations for Pakistan to seek influence in Afghanistan. But does such influence need to be complete dominance? The fact of the matter is that Pakistan cannot encash the economic value of its strategic position in relation to Central Asia without a cooperative relationship with Afghanistan and the rest of the players that include Iran, Russia, China, India and the US. Unless the interests of all of these players are accommodated, India, Iran or China will never fully trust their strategic trade routes to Pakistani dominance. Pakistan simply cannot afford to wait indefinitely for the day when Afghanistan will fall into its lap and it will then decide how to accommodate the others and on what terms. The time to figure out a via media is now or perhaps never.

The US retains several vital coercive cards to play in the Afghan-Pakistan status quo should Pakistani belligerence continue. The Americans are old hands at using insurgency as a weapon of destabilisation and Pakistan’s north and south offer fertile areas where the US could engineer a counter-offensive. Balochistan is an obvious candidate for many reasons. Denying Gwadar port to the Chinese, bottling up Pakistan and opening a sea route for Afghanistan independently of Pakistan come to mind. The local insurgency in Balochistan, a result of past colossal mistakes, offers a convenient cover. Denial of trade, aid, and restrictions on access to external financing are other cards that the US will seek to play to keep Pakistani aggression in Afghanistan in check. So overall, Pakistan’s strategic capacity to defy the US indefinitely in Afghanistan is very limited now. It did hold a trump card in terms of logistics before it played the card. Its generals recklessly threw away the card in a fit of unprofessional pique or perhaps it was acute political embarrassment?

Pakistan has nothing to lose by coming to the negotiating table with the US and others and everything to gain from it. By negotiating, it can give itself another chance in Afghanistan. Therefore, one should expect Pakistan’s Deep State to recognise the obvious compulsions and find a way to return to the table. However, Pakistan needs to reassess earnestly its entire strategy in Afghanistan top to bottom. Pakistan is playing a 19th century game of trade routes in the 21st century. The world is getting smaller and more tightly integrated by the day. The US began its Iraq adventure thinking the country was its legitimate share of the spoils of war. Much blood and treasure later, and a near total loss of face, it realised that in the television age, one could not own another country even as the world’s only superpower. The Afghans are no pushovers. Pakistan needs to think Pakistan first, India last — not the other way around.

IMRAN & NAWAZ VS REVOLUTION!!!!

BY: M WAQAR
For the last few years Nawaz and Imran are talking about revolution in their Country but seems like either both are confused with the word ‘’REVOLUTION’’ or don’t have any revolutionary thinking, but their goal is to get to the PM house in Islamabad, may be that is their revolution. I think both of em not only need to study the constitution of Pakistan but also needs to know the definition of revolution, although Nawaz with the help of ISI was ‘’selected’’ twice as PM and he could fulfill his thrust for revolution; he had a chance to bring revolution in Pakistani agriculture, education, society and could develop Pakistan like Malaysia or Indonesia, but unfortunately during his tenure poor were selling kids and kidneys and only development, and progress was made in RAIWIND. According to his latest statement,’’ 'My team will bring revolution in the country', To me its funny when NAWAZ SHARIF talks about revolution, His revolution is for himself not for Pakistani people, he wants a revolution so he can become Prime Minister and lets not forget that Nawaz was PM not once but twice, so what happen then?,he had all the power and he could change Pakistan , he could get rid of what he is talking about now . It is obvious that Nawaz Sharif is playing a dangerous game using Punjabi ethnicity for his political gains in Pakistan and he is not alone, Imran Khan even wants to use Taliban for revolution,If anyone thinks Mr Sharif’s idea of “revolution” goes beyond this, he/she should get the Nobel Prize for Misplaced Optimism. Nawaz Sharif is once again trying to revive Pujabi chauvinism in Pakistan,’’ Jaag Punjabi Jaag Teri Pag Noon Lag Gaya Daagh. “” Obviously what Nawaz Sharif promised the nation, was not a revolution in the real sense but merely a regime-change to his liking. Nawaz Sharif talks about NRO but he forgets about his agreement with dictator Musharaf, he talks about judiciary but forgets his attack on supreme court, he talks about media but forgets what he did to Rehmat Shah Afridi of FP,Jang Group and others, he forgets what he did to Junejo. He talks about democracy but he forgot it while making forward block .Nawaz Sharif needs power and his style of revolution for power and money. Where was his revolution when Nawaz Sharif spent his time at Surror Palace in Jeddah and then in England and poor Pakistanis were selling kids and kidneys. Shahbaz Sharif and Mian Nawaz Sharif both are convicted criminals, in a unconstitutional deal with the military dictator General Pervez Musharaf, both of them went into exile with a promise to stop participating in politics . I am sure Nawaz and Imran can't be Mao, Lenin, Washington, Ataturk because both don’t have those qualities, both belong to the old elite club of Pakistani bourgeois feudal system. Although Imran is a new kid on the block in political arena, but his problem is he is following footsteps of his mentor QAZI Hussain and loves politics of agitation, slogans and tall claims to defeat his opponents, of curse politics is different than cricket game, obviously he does not have any agenda, he never condemned Taliban, if he wants to be a revolutionary leader, he should challenge blasphemy law, talk about minority's sufferings, women rights, etc., which are hot and sensitive issues in Pakistan besides poverty, corruption and millions of other problems citizens of Pakistan are facing for the last 65 years. In politics you don’t have to be a good looking guy or gal, Democracy is a greatest form of Govt,but Pakistan is a very different and complex society where you are dealing with over fifty million people who are illiterate, Clearing away the feudal influence left from thousands of years and clearly framing democratic boundaries are both important to Pakistan’s political structure. There are few countries today that can survive with authoritarian governments.I might sound anti-democracy but let’s face the fact in Pakistani case, Educated citizens are the most important group for Democracy. In Europe and America democracy is successful cause their citizens are well educated and well aware of their rights and duties, where politicians can’t make their voters chump all the time, in case of political and constitutional issues, Mr. Imran Khan had to first understand what the people want and what the Government can give or deliver within the framework of Pakistan as he is interested to make his Tehrik-i-Insaf as majority party in the Parliament and become the Prime Minister. If Imran want to be the ATATURK OR MAO of Pakistan then he needs to change his mentality and should gain some political maturity. A revolutionary guy for Pakistan can’t play as westernized boy in his drawing room and then try to placate mullah and placate Army while presenting himself as the acceptable face of Pakistan. Revolutionary leaders don’t have mentors, they are born naturally as revolutionary, If it is true that General Gul is Imran Khan’s political mentor, influencing his sympathies for religious extremism, it is not a good omen for Pakistan, which is already in a vortex of terrorist violence , Imran’s politics is not so straightforward. A man of his background living in both Islamic and western cultures, and now leaning towards religious conservatism, is a contradiction. Such metamorphism can only be described as political opportunism. His sympathies are more with the religious right, earning him, in some quarters, the title of ‘Taliban Khan’. He believes that the country’s militants can be won over through talks. He is pushing the popular anti-US line, advocates freeing Pakistan of US and western aid. But he is sketchy on how all this will solve the country’s myriad problems. There is a certain political naivety about the man. There are no detailed policy prescriptions to take the country ahead. To take one important aspect: has he got a policy framework to conduct dialog with the Taliban? How will they be accommodated? Will ‘Prime Minister’ Imran Khan agree to run the country on the Taliban’s interpretation of Islam? There is no clarity about the path Pakistan will tread under him. Imran runs the biggest charitable institute, But one cannot run a country like a charitable institute. One thing that will keep popping up from time to time is the contradiction in Imran Khan’s personal life, which will increasingly become public as he gets closer to the top office. That is: his increasing reliance on Islamic politics while straddling both sides of the cultural divide. Amanda Hodge puts it cryptically in her article in The Australian. She writes: “Despite his best efforts, his previous reputation [as a playboy] has not forsaken him. Rumors abound of Khan — still slick from a home gym workout — greeting one female [western] journalist in only a pair of brief running shorts, and of conducting an interview with another in his bedroom.” She adds, “The philandering reputation continues to dog Khan — and has led some to call into question his attitude towards women.” Be that as it may, Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf is no revolution — soft or otherwise. The rising support for Imran Khan, especially among the youth, might be a good thing but the way Imran Khan has been supporting the Taliban and tribal justice is dangerous for future politics in Pakistan. This all seems like Imran will disappoint the people ,the youth and there will be no change in Pakistan, may be under PRIME MINISTER IMRAN Pakistan will become one isolated Country in the World,but then the question is if you refuse to take aid from U.S.A and other countries(which is fine) then are you able to improve your agriculture, build factories, industries, create jobs, provide free health care to your citizens,curtail child labor and a million dollar question how Prime Minister Imran will refuse aid for his military, who has been dependent on US aid for many years, nearly $ 20 billion in the past 10 years alone, also half of all Pakistanis live below the poverty line and 75 percent live on $ 2 or less a day. There is unprecedented inflation, lawlessness, unemployment, gas shortages,plush how to deal with bureaucracy?. There are target killings in Karachi and Baluchistan, all along the tribal belt there’s an insurgency and a total collapse of state institutions, so if he thinks that he is the Savior of Pakistan, and that’s what people believe too, he needs to come out clean and instead of calling Zardari thief day N night, he needs to show his agenda, policies of PRIME MINISTER IMRAN KHAN.Revolutionary Imran Khan should not be a typical Pakistani politician.The problem with Pakistani politicians is, when they are in opposition they blame current Govt, when they get power they waist time in blaming previous regime but they do nothing for the nation except for themselves, If Imran is thinking that he will behave like Gaddafi of Libya or Iran’s Ahmadinejad then he is living in fool’s paradise, IRAN and Libya got power of oil and more developed then Pakistan who could live without foreign aid and can afford challenging big global powers and players, let’s face reality, Pakistan is a failed state, depends on IMF ,U.S.,WEST etc. Revolutionary leaders don’t jump on gravy trains and the problem with Pakistani politician is they are all on the bandwagon of others. They just make tall claims to get elected and then forget the miseries of the people. Revolutionary leaders are not born in the palaces of bourgeois’ but are born in the homes of peasants, factory workers. Nawaz and Imran are both just interested in changing the guard, taking over the reins of power then just play ''Mr. PRIME MINISTER.'' So will that change Pakistan, ’’NO’’. Pakistan needs new generation of politicians who are not family members of past hypocrites, dictators and traitors, Pakistani political parties never developed into viable institutions capable of generating leadership. There are talented emerging politicians in some political parties of Pakistan but they stand no chance of occupying their party top slots. Only the educated people can help break the choking grip of wealthy, autocratic feudal politicians. In Pakistan the military has been part of the problem because it has been encouraging the monopoly of a handful of politicians in the country, perpetuating a troubled system and never encouraging its replacement with a better one. The prevalent feudal system of Pakistan is the main obstacle in the progress of the country and the prosperity of the people. Since the creation of Pakistan the Pakistani people are left at distant from the corridor of power so that the ruling elite can do what they wanted to do in favor of their interest, leaving the Pakistani people at the mercy of circumstances. As this policy is denial of right of Pakistani people to rule their country according to their aspiration and desire to build this country, which can provide equal opportunity to all without any discrimination for the establishment of welfare society. It would be wrong to blame Pakistan army alone for having usurped power for more than half of its life. It was in fact feudal corrupt politicians that facilitated first martial law in Pakistan and again in 1999. How long shall we suffer? How long the future of our coming generation will be at stake. With a population of over 160 million, Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world and the second most populous country with a Muslim majority. However, the country faces significant development challenges, with one in 10 children dying before their fifth birthday, and 50% of adults classed as illiterate, no clean drinking water, load shedding and so many other countless problems Pakistanis face every day. Pakistani politicians failed to develop stability in Pakistan, because they lack an all-Pakistan vision. The entire Pakistani political class is composed of thieves waiting to stab each other in the back given the slightest opportunity, in order to feed like pigs at the trough, looting the public coffers instead of working for Pakistan's betterment. What hope can the common Pakistani have? Democracy can not work in Pakistan unless and until the country gets rid itself from the culture of dynastic rulers, feudal lords, capricious, greedy rich politicians and military generals who have monopolized and manipulated Pakistan for the last sixty one years for their personal interests. These corrupt politicians have now the last chance to save Pakistan from collapsing if their intentions are honest and patriotic but if as always in the past, they are only interested in the thickness of their wallets; the country is doomed as it is surrounded by enemies within and around its borders. Pakistan is sinking into a deep hole dug by the corrupt politicians who quarrel incessantly about anything and everything and can never agree on anything, and that is the biggest tragedy of Pakistan. The Pakistanis are sick and tired of politicians’ never ending squabbling, reminiscing their past, each other failures and never discussing what they could do for the country in the future. They are stuck in the past and if you were watch them on TV; all they would do is to discuss the present, past, and ignoring the fact that each one of them is responsible for the gradual fragmentation of their country. Pakistan does not need to be told by the foreigners what to do with their internal and external affairs and all they need is to resolve their disputes, petty squabbles and to stand united to faces internal and external threats. Pakistani politicians must grow up to be men if they wished to save their country from breaking up into many pieces. They must look at Iraq and learn a lesson that their kitchen politics will lead them into a quagmire and sink their country with them. Pakistanis do not need buttery words, false promises, false direction, false hopes and dreams from these inept perennial squabbling politicians. It is imperative to put in place a system that would require end of dynastic, elitist, feudal and generals ruling the country. Democracy is a delicate system of governance that can be sustained only if the political class fully subscribes to and implements its basic norms in letter and spirit. The use of violence in the name of exercising the democratic right to protest shows a lack of understanding of the spirit of democracy. Where is the discussion about the higher education in Pakistan? How are the top notch scientists, engineers and doctors going to be trained? When will govt start pouring funds into these fields? There is also EDUCATIONAL FAILURE in Pakistan, a country with over 40 million illiterate people can’t progress and develop. The lack of modern schools and scientific education shows no potential for Pakistan to develop economically or politically in the future. Pakistani elite betraying the better educated parts of its population and turn itself into a backward nation, and they are doing it so they can rule and no one can question them .Pakistan as a nation is failing miserably and corrupt and opportunist politicians and power hungry Generals are responsible for that. If Pakistan is bankrupt ,even all the loans from IMF, World Bank, Paris Club, London Club, overt and covert aid from US, and repeated refinancing of the debt have not worked because all that aid was stolen by Pakistani elite, politicians and Army Generals. Today we see POLITICAL FAILURE in Pakistan because of The military coups, suspension of constitutional law, murders of Bhuttos , reveal no evidence of a modern political culture or democracy and none of the politicians of this country were sincere to help growing that political culture in Pakistan, Pakistani politicians have no agenda for growth or development; no plans for health and education meaningful. Most of the Politicians lack qualifications, experience and even commitment to tackle the problems of the Country. Politics and power dominates their agenda and real issues of poverty, illiteracy and disease do not fare in their book. Anyone who expects them to lead the country to peace and prosperity must be dreaming. The representatives of the people need to pass certain tests of eligibility. Character, ability, a sense of responsibility and experience are necessary ingredients of that eligibility, but in Pakistani Politics we don’t see that PMLN leaders think that democracy is relevant only to the extent that it facilitates the achievement of their partisan political agenda. If Nawaz Sharif is so sincere then why he never talks about women rights, but PML(N) opposed bill against domestic violence. If Nawaz believes he is a revolutionary then what is view point on so called blasphemy law, Taliban destroying schools etc. PMLN leaders think that democracy is relevant only to the extent that it facilitates the achievement of their partisan political agenda. By the age of 65, a COUNTRY - like a man - should have achieved a certain maturity. After decades of existence we know, for good and for bad, which we are, what we have done and how we appear to others, warts and all. But unfortunately, Pakistan remains curiously immature; a Country with less than 50% rate of literacy can’t bring political wisdom that usually accompanies age. Therefore, Pakistanis needs to wake up, stand up for their rights and reject these corrupt and failed politicians. If IMRAN KHAN can handle all these challenges and is able to solve these problems Pakistan facing then I wish him a good luck, otherwise Please don’t use word ‘’REVOLUTION’’ if you(IK) JUST WANT TO RAISE SLOGANS TO GET POPULAR AND BECOME PRIME MINISTER.